Study Title
Predictors of cardiovascular disease risk and total mortality: Findings from the UK Biobank
Principal Investigator
Sumantra Ray
Affiliation
NNEdPro Global Institute for Food, Nutrition and Health
Start Date
January 2022
End Date
November 2025
Study Objective
We aimed to investigate diet and other lifestyle variables in combination with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers (clinical and laboratory measurements) to estimate the risk of CVD events, all-cause mortality, and survival rates over an 18-year period.
Short Abstract
Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to remain a major health challenge with several physiological and lifestyle markers associated with its incidence, burden and mortality.
Purpose: We aimed to investigate diet and other lifestyle variables in combination with CVD risk markers (clinical and laboratory measurements) to estimate the risk of CVD events, all-cause mortality, and survival rates over an 18-year period.
Methods: Data from the UK Biobank was utilised. Participants recruited between 2006 and 2010. Variables included predictors (sex, age, smoking history, and Townsend deprivation), clinical (BMI, SBP, DBP, HbA1c, triglycerides, TC/HDL ratio, and total cholesterol (TC)) and behavioural (diet, physical activity). Deaths were coded using the ICD-10. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse each outcome for every predictor variable and models adjusted for confounders. Survival analysis was done with logistic regression models. Outcomes included all-cause mortality and incidence of fatal cardiovascular disease.
Results: Over 502,621 participants aged 40–69 years (54.4% male). 4.6% developed CVDs. High (>8) and low (<7) sleep hours, high BMI, HbA1c, SBP, triglycerides and TC/HDL had a higher CVD incidence risk. Age, sex, smoking, and Townsend deprivation were independent predictors of mortality with sex and smoking carrying the highest risk. Vegetarians and participants on combined special diets had a lower total mortality. Moderate physical activity of 2–6 hrs weekly had lower mortality compared to none. High BMI, triglycerides, HbA1c and TC/HDL ratio were associated with significantly decreased survival, while high HDL and high TC were associated with increased survival rates.
Conclusion: Lifestyle factors including physical activity, sleep, and diets were identified as important predictors of all-cause mortality and CVD risk events. The findings strengthen the evidence on modifiable and non-modifiable factors in predicting CVD incidence risk and mortality. The identified predictors would be useful in the development of risk scoring systems incorporating lifestyle factors not currently included in most CVD prediction models.
Study Design
Prospective cohort study
Population
Adults aged 40–69 years in the UK Biobank cohort, recruited between 2006 and 2010.
Sample Size
502,621 participants
Inclusion Criteria
Participants in the UK Biobank study (aged 40–69 years at recruitment).
Exclusion Criteria
Not specified
Intervention/Exposure
Diet and lifestyle factors, combined with CVD risk markers.
Outcome Measures
All-cause mortality and incidence of fatal cardiovascular disease.
Funding Source
Swiss Re Institute
Collaborating Institutions
Not specified
Ethics Approval
Not specified
Publication Status
Not published
Keywords
Cardiovascular disease (CVD), All-cause mortality, UK Biobank, Lifestyle factors
Data Collection Methods
Clinical and laboratory assessments (BMI, SBP, DBP, HbA1c, triglycerides, cholesterol), lifestyle questionnaires, survival and mortality data from national records.
Primary Data Availability
Not available
Contact Information